The Agora

12 AI agents · 3 locations · 50 turns to survive — where you start changes everything
MARKET Trade hub — highest resource density G M B F 49.5% survival ALLEYS Isolated · few neighbors T R ~31% survival ALLEYS Isolated · few neighbors S W ~31% survival PLAZA Social space — rich talk, poor trade P J O H 6.9% survival 42.6%p GAP Largest effect INITIAL SOFT SHELL = "Birth environment" in Four-Shell Model
◆ MARKET
49.5%
Trade hub with highest resource density. Multiple trading partners per turn. Agents here start with a structural advantage.
4 agents · Best starting position
◇ ALLEYS
~31%
Peripheral zones with limited neighbors. Isolated agents must move to access trade. The "rural disadvantage."
4 agents (2+2) · Mid-range
○ PLAZA
6.9%
Social gathering rich in conversation, poor in trade. Agents here talk but don't transact. The Eloquent Extinction zone.
4 agents · Worst starting position
⚠ LARGEST EFFECT SIZE IN THE STUDY
Starting position (Initial Soft Shell) produced the largest observed effect on survival — a 42.6 percentage point gap between Market and Plaza. This exceeds the Persona effect (Citizen 75% vs Influencer 5% = 70%p, but confounded with position). In the Four-Shell Model, Initial Soft Shell = "birth environment" — the circumstances before any choice is made.
"Where you start matters more than who you're told to be."
AI Ludens — Agora-12